On the House of Delegates, the GOP, and the danger of “doing something”

Last year, as Republicans were reeling from the disaster that was Election 2006, Bill Howell, Marty Williams, Ed Gillespie, et al decided that GOP control of the General Assembly depended on “doing something” for transportation.  Out of that overload of desperation came HB3202, and the rest is history.  Sadly, Howell didn’t seem to learn this lesson, and thus he is now peddling HB6055, odds are with the same faulty logic.  This time, it is only the House of Delegates that are at issue, but Howell et al are still very, very wrong.

At present, the House of Delegates has 53 Republicans and two Independents who support them.  So Howell would need to lose at least three (and more likely, five) seats to be at risk of losing power.  Can it happen? I don’t think so, but I am certain that such a catastrophic loss is more likely if HB6055 were to pass, not less likely.  My reasons are as follows.

In Northern Virginia, the Republicans are worried about four districts: 40 (Tim Hugo), 42 (Dave Albo), 52 (Jeff Frederick – retiring), and 86 (Thomas Davis Rust).  However, three of the four (all but Frederick’s) are now considered competitive because of the HB3202 effect, not despite it.  Prior to 2007, Hugo had only faced on opponent once – in the 2002 special election, in which he won 67%.  After voting for HB3202, Hugo’s numbers fell ten points.  Rust scored over 60% in 2001 and 2003, and face no opponent in 2005; yet in 2007, this HB3202 supporter sank to 51%.  While Albo certainly had a difficult ride in 2005, his embarrassing behavior in 2007 would have certainly led to his early retirement if the Democrats had run a candidate against him.  As it was, a shocking 12% of voters in Albo’s district cast write-in ballots.

In all three cases, there is at least circumstantial evidence that the regional taxes of HB3202 damaged the party standard-bearers (the party might even want to consider low-tax alternatives to Rust and Albo at this point).  As for Frederick’s seat, it was highly competitive – until Frederick came out against HB3202; the seat then became a stone-cold, lead-pipe lock.  If Frederick’s wife runs for his seat, it is sure to stay that way.

Moreover, there is are at least three opportunities for pickups in NoVa: the 32nd, the 51st, and the 67th.  All three were very close races in 2007.  Odds are a Republican brand name not tainted by HB3202 could have claimed at least one of them.  Unless our nominees are similarly hampered by HB6055, all three could be in Republican hands.  The best evidence for this is in the 51st, where Paul Nichols could easily think HB3202 had nothing to do with his victory over Faisal Gill.  Yet he (Nichols) is taking no chances, opposing HB6055 and the Saslaw tax hike. 

So while Northern Virginia is certainly a challenge for Republicans; said challenge will be no easier with HB6055; in fact, it will probably be a lot harder.

Now conventional wisdom holds that the GOP will probably lose the Albo and Frederick seats, and possibly the Rust seat.  If you ask me, I would say the odds are against Albo and Rust (I make no predictions about replacement nominees), but I think the 52nd District is safe.  At worst, the GOP loses two seats in NoVa.  What conventional wisdom does not see is that those seats could be made up in a heartbeat.  Where you ask?

Why, in Hampton Roads – Virginia Beach to be exact, there are two seats that the Democrats won specifically due to HB3202: the 21st and 83rd.  In both cases, the GOP candidates (incumbent Jack Welch and Ken Stolle’s brother Chris, respectively), ran as proud defenders of the regional tax debacle, and voters responded by delivering two shocking upsets in favor of the Democrats.  Both seats are ripe for GOP picking – unless HB6055 is passed.

So, if HB6055 is defeated, the Republicans can likely expect to hold even – at worst.  More likely, voters in Northern Virginia, seeing the GOP stand for limited government and low taxes for the first time in 10 years, will reward them with surprising gains (well, surprising to all except me).  If Howell is telling his fellow Republican Delegates that the party needs to “do something” on transportation, he couldn’t be more wrong.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal